Working paper series

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Staff in Economics and Finance regularly publish their developmental papers as part of our working paper series at Adam Smith Business School. The most recent papers can be downloaded below.

If you have a working paper to be added, please contact and we will add it to the website within 7 days. For economics papers, please provide the relevant JEL classification codes for RePEc purposes.


2024-01. 'On Bayesian Filtering for Markov Regime Switching Models' by Nigar Hashimzade, Oleg Kirsanov, Tatiana Kirsanova, Junior Maih

2024-02. 'Survey-based expectations and uncertainty attitudes' by Dmitri V. Vinogradov,  Michael J. Lamla, Yousef Makhlouf

2024-03. 'Prudential fiscal stimulus' by Alfred Duncan and Charles Nolan

2024-04. 'On the adaptation of the Lagrange formalism to continuous stochastic optimal control: A Lagrange-Chow redux' by Christian Oliver Ewald and Charles Nolan

2024-05. 'Quantitative Easing, Banks' Funding Costs, and Credit Line Prices' by Mario Cerrato and Shengfeng Mei.

2024-06. 'Evolution in the aid delivery and aid effectiveness debate - A working paper' by Michael Tribe

2024-07. 'Who should not share? The merits of withholding unused vehicles'  by Roman Zakharenko


2023-01. 'Selection, Patience, and Interest Rate' by Radoslaw (Radek) Stefanski and Alex Trew (previous version 2022-08)

2023-02. 'Signal-jamming in the Frequency Domani' by Bart Taub

2023-03. 'Foreign exchange order flow as a risk factor' by Craig Burnside, Mario Cerrato and Zhekai Zhang.

2023-04. 'Agreed and disagreed uncertainty' by Luca Gambetti, Dimitris Korobilis, John D. Tsoukalas and Francesco Zanetti.

2023-05. 'European firms, panic borrowing and credit lines drawdowns: What did we learn from the COVID-19 shock?' by Mario Cerrato, Hormoz Ramian and Shengfeng Mei.

2023-06. 'Is the social origin pay gap bigger than we thought? Identifying and acknowledging workers with undefined social origins in survey data' by Michael Vallely, Jeanette Findlay and Kristinn Hermannsson

2023-07. 'Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk' by Dimitris Korobilis and Maximilian Schöder.

2023-08. 'Adam Smith and the Bankers: Retrospect and Prospect' by Alfred Duncan and Charles Nolan.

2023-09. 'The Death and Life of Great British Citites' by Stephan Heblich, Dávid Krisztián Nagy, Alex Trew and Yanos Zylberberg.

2023-10. 'Stimulating Long-Term Growth and Welfare in the U.S.' by James Malley and Apostolis Philippopoulos


2022-01 'Globalization of Capital Flows and the (In)Disciplining of Nations' by Arthur Blouin, Sayantan Ghosal and Sharun W. Mukand

2022-02 'Persistent States: lessons for Scottish devolution and independence' by Anton Muscatelli, Graeme Roy and Alex Trew

2022-03 'The Macroeconomic Effects of Funding U.S. Infrastructure' by James Malley and Apostolis Philippopoulos

2022-04 'International bank credit, nonbank lenders, and access to external financing' by Jose-Maria Serena, Marina-Eliza Spaliara and Serafeim Tsoukas

2022-05 'Asymptotic properties of Bayesian inference in linear regression with a structural break' by Kenichi Shimizu 

2022-06 'Semiparametric Bayesian Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models' by Andriy Norets and Kenichi Shimizu

2022-07 'Default Risk and the Cross-section of UK Insurance Firms' by Mario Cerrato, Paolo Coccorese and Xuan Zhang

2022-08 'Selection, Patience and the Interest Rate' by Radoslaw (Radek) Stefanski and Alex Trew (updated version January 2023)

2022-09 'Private equity buyouts and firm exporting during the global financial crisis' by Paul Lavery and Marina-Eliza Spaliara

2022-10 'Expected Returns to Crime and Crime Location' by Nils Braakmann, Arnaud Chevalier and Tanya Wilson

2022-11 'Marriage Market Equilibrium with Matching on Latent Ability: Identification using a Compulsory Schooling Expansion' by Dan Anderberg, Jesper Bagger, V. Bhaskar and Tanya Wilson.

2022-12 'European firms, Panic Borrowing and Credit Lines Drawdowns: What did we learn from the COVID-19 Shock?' by Mario Cerrato, Hormoz Ramian, and Shengfeng Mei (updated version 2023-05)

2022-13 'Frequency-band estimation of the number of factors detecting the main business cycle shocks' by Marco Avarucci, Maddalena Cavicchioli, Mario Forni and Paolo Zaffaroni.

2022-14 'CFO Working Experience and Tax Avoidance' by Panagiotis Karavitis, Pantelis Kazakis and Tianyue Xu

2022-15 'Fighting for Growth: Labor scarcity and technological progress during the British industrial revolution' by Hans-Joachim Voth, Bruno Caprettini and Alex Trew.

2022-16 'The Financial Capability of the Youth in Greece' by Vasiliki A. Tzora, Nikolaos D. Philippas and Georgios A. Panos.

2022-17. 'Modelling Low-Frequency Covariability of Paleoclimatic Data' by Vasco J. Gabriel, Luis F. Martins and Anthoulla Phella


2021-01 'Do role models increase student hope and effort? Evidence from India' by Prateek Chandra Bhan

2021-02 'Partial Consensus in Large Games and Markets' by Gabriel Desgranges and Sayantan Ghosal

2021-03 'Original sin in corporate finance: New evidence from Asian bond issuers in onshore and offshore markets' by Paul Mizen, Frank Packer, Eli Remolona and Serafeim Tsoukas 

2021-04 'On the Foundation of Monopoly in Bilateral Exchange' by Francesca Busetto, Giulio Codognato, Sayantan Ghosal and Damiano Turchet 

2021-05 'The Influence of Anger on Strategic Cooperative Interactions' by Sergio Alessandro Castagnetti, Sebastiano Massaro and Eugenio Proto 

2021-06 'Private equity buyouts, credit constraints, and firm exports' by Paul Lavery, Jose-Maria Serena, Marina-Eliza Spaliara and Serafeim Tsoukas

2021-07 'Heterogeneous beliefs and approximately self-fulfilling outcomes' by Gabriel Desgranges and Sayantan Ghosal 

2021-08 'Covid-19 and Mental Health of Individuals with Different Personalities' by Eugenio Proto and Anwen Zhang 

2021-09 'Tackling barriers to collective action for effective vaccination campaigns: rabies in rural Africa as an example' by Putthi Cheat Lim, Tiziana Lembo, Katie Hampson, Sayantan Ghosal, Joel Changalucha and Maganga Sambo 

2021-10 'Management Practices and Takeover Decisions' by Manthos D. Delis, Pantelis Kazakis and Constantin Zopounidis 

2021-11 'Private equity and bank capital requirements: Evidence from European firms' by Marina-Eliza Spaliara, Serafeim Tsoukas and Paul Lavery 

2021-12 'Anxiety, Expectations Stabilization and Intertemporal Markets: Theory, Evidence and Policy' by Francesco Carbonero, Jeremy Davies, Ekkehard Ernst, Sayantan Ghosal and Leaza McSorley 

2021-13 'Subjective Life Expectancies, Time Preference Heterogeneity, and Wealth Inequality' by Richard Foltyn and Jonna Olsson 

2021-14 'Financial Dependence and Intensive Margin of Trade' by Melise Jaud, Madina Kukenova and Martin Strieborny

2021-15 'Stock Market Liberalizations and Export Dynamics' by Melise Jaud, Madina Kukenova and Martin Strieborny 

2021-16 'New Insight on Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivity' by Sai Ding, Minjoo Kim and Xiao Zhang 

2021-17 'Health Dynamics and Heterogeneous Life Expectancies' by Richard Foltyn and Jonna Olsson 

2021-18 'Overconfident CEOs, Corporate Social Responsibility & Tax Avoidance: Evidence from China' by Panagiotis Karavitis, Pantelis Kazakis and Tianyue Xu  

2021-19 'Bayesian Approaches to Shrinkage and Sparse Estimation' by Dimitris Korobilis and Kenichi Shimizu


2020-01 'Factor Investing and forex Portfolio Management' by Mario Cerrato, Danyang Li and Zhekai Zhang 

2020-02 'On the Existence of Positive Equilibrium Profits in Competitive Screening Markets' by Yehuda John Levy and André Veiga 

2023-01 'Selection, Patience, and the Interest Rate' by Radoslaw (Radek) Stefanski and Alex Trew (Updated version. January 2023)

2020-04 'U.S. Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Conflict or Cooperation?' by Xiaoshan Chen, Eric M. Leeper and Campbell Leith

2020-05 'Monetary Policy when Preferences are Quasi-Hyperbolic' by Richard Dennis and Oleg Kirsanov

2020-06 'The Informational Content of Default Risk in UK Insurance Firms' by Mario Cerrato, Paolo Coccorese and Xuan Zhang (no longer available to download)

2020-07 'Intelligence, Errors and Strategic Choices in the Repeated Prisoners Dilemma' by Eugenio Proto, Aldo Rustichini and Andis Sofianos

2020-08 'Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions' by Christiane Baumeister, Dimitris Korobilis and Thomas K. Lee

2020-09 'Machine Learning Econometrics: Bayesian algorithms and methods' by Dimitris Korobilis and Davide Pettenuzzo 

2020-10 'How to keep up wellbeing during the COVID-19 Pandemic? Advice from the World Wellbeing Panel (WWP)' by Tony Beatton, Ada Ferrer-i-Carbonell, Paul Frijters, Arthur Grimes and Eugenio Proto

2020-11 'Bayesian dynamic variable selection in high dimensions' by Gary Koop and Dimitris Korobilis

2020-12 'Does Easing Access to Foreign Financing Matter for Firm Performance?' by Udichibarna Bose, Sushanta Mallick and Serafeim Tsoukas

2020-13 'International bank lending and corporate debt structure' by Jose-Maria Serena and Serafeim Tsoukas

2020-14 'Tight and Loose, and Red and Blue: A 'Dance' of Macro Policies in the US' by Tatiana Kirsanova, Celsa Machado and Ana Paula Ribeiro

2020-15 'Equilibria Existence in Bayesian Games: Climbing the Countable Borel Equivalence Relation Hierarchy' by Ziv Hellman and Yehuda John Levy

2020-16 'COVID-19 and Mental Health Deterioration among BAME groups in the UK' by Eugenio Proto and Climent Quintana-Domeque

2020-17 'Sustainable Debt Restructuring in the time of Covid 19: Investment and Non-Elite Participation' by Sayantan Ghosal and Dania Thomas

2020-18 'Sharing of longevity basis risk in pension schemes with income-drawdown guarantees' by Ankush Agarwal, Christian-Oliver Ewald and Yongjie Wang

2020-19 'Country default in a monetary union' by Lovleen Kushwah

2020-20 'Heterogeneous Wealth Effects' by Dimitris Christelis, Dimitris Georgarakos, Tullio Jappelli, Luigi Pistaferri and Maarten van Rooij

2020-21 'Sign restrictions in high-dimensional vector autoregressions' by Dimitris Korobilis

2020-22 'Can enhancing consciousness of control ideology mitigate the impact of poverty on perseverance?' by Seemanti Ghosh

2020-23 'Development of locus of control: A comparison between adolescents from middle- and lower-socioeconomic class' by Seemanti Ghosh

2020-24 'Four Phases in the History of Money' by Luis Angeles

2020-25 'Gender board diversity and the cost of bank loans' by Panagiotis Karavitis, Sotirios Kokas and Serafeim Tsoukas 

2020-26 'Financial Literacy and Attitudes to Cryptocurrencies' by Georgios A. Panos, Tatja Karkkainen and Adele Atkinson

2020-27 'Is Literacy a Multi-dimensional Concept? Some Empirical Evidence' by Georgios A. Panos, Theocharis Kromydas, Michael Osborne and Robert E. Wright

2020-28 'Corporate Social Responsibility and Profit Shifting' by Iftekhar Hasan, Panagiotis Karavitis, Pantelis Kazakis and Woon Sau Leung

2020-29 'Political Sentiment and Syndicated Loan Borrowing Costs of Multinational Enterprises' by Panagiotis Karavitis and Pantelis Kazakis

2020-30 'Preference to work and its effects on economic growth and happiness' by Jim Yongtao Jin and Geethanjali Selvaretnam

2020-31 'The Covid-19 Crisis and Consumption: Survey Evidence from Six EU Countries' by Dimitris Christelis, Dimitris Georgarakos, Tullio Jappelli and Geoff Kenny

2020-32 'Financial Risk-taking and Differential Bargaining Power within Households' by Dimitris Christelis, Dimitris Georgarakos and Tullio Jappelli


2019-01 'Four phases in the history of money' by Luis Angeles (no longer available to download)

2019-02 Working paper by Betty Wu, Iain MacNeil and Katarzyna Chalaczkiewicz-Ladna (no longer available to download)

2019-03 'Cyclical income risk in Great Britain' by Konstantinos Angelopoulos, Spyridon Lazarakis and James Malley

2019-04 'Estimated Human Capital Externalities in an Endogenous Growth Framework' by Jim Malley and Ulrich Woitek

2019-05 'Savings externalities and wealth inequality' by Konstantinos Angelopoulos, Spyridon Lazarakis and James Malley

2019-06 'The distributional effects of peer and aspirational pressure' by Konstantinos Angelopoulos, Spyridon Lazarakis and James Malley

2019-07 'High-dimensional macroeconomic forecasting using message passing algorithms' by Dimitris Korobilis

2019-08 'Beauty and Adolescent Risky Behaviours' by Colin P. Green, Luke Wilson and Anwen Zhang

2019-09 'Two-way capital flows: A risk-sharing approach' by Ning Zhang

2019-10 'Country portfolios with habit persistence' by Ning Zhang

2019-11 'Asset home bias in debtor and creditor countries' by Ning Zhang

2019-12 'Can we predict currency momentum crashes?' by Mario Cerrato and Zhekai Zhang (no longer available to download)

2019-13 'Shaking Criminal Incentives' by Yu Aoki and Theodore Koutmeridis